Back in 2020, this blog took a dive into COVID-19’s impact on food prices. Since then, they’ve been in the news pretty continuously (e.g., CBC News, Global News, and CTV News), and some new data just dropped, so we thought it’d be good to take another look at it through some 2022 eyes.
The best data here comes from the Consumer Price Index (1), developed by Statistics Canada, which displays a table of “monthly average retail prices of food by province”. From this table, we can see whether food prices are increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable in the province. In April 2020, we confirmed that prices for common foods in Newfoundland and Labrador had fluctuated, with some increasing and others decreasing, during the time period when COVID-19 first took over. Since then, Statistics Canada has updated this table to include data up to November 2021. Since our previous update in 2020, retail food prices have continued to fluctuate, with prices both increasing and decreasing between April 2020 through November 2021. However, of the 37 food items listed in the Consumer Price Index for Newfoundland and Labrador, 27 (73%) have increased in price.
What The Data Shows
Of food prices that have increased, the most significant rise was for beef top sirloin cuts and beef striploin cuts. In April 2020, beef top sirloin cuts cost $12.74/kg and beef striploin cuts cost $18.77/kg. By November 2021, top sirloin cuts have risen to $19.91/kg and striploin cuts have risen to $26.68/kg. This represents an increase of 56.3% and 42.1% per kilogram, respectively. Pork rib cuts also rose from $8.95/kg to $11.86/kg, representing a 32.5% increase.
Of the 18 fruits and vegetables listed in the Consumer Price Index, exactly two-thirds displayed an increase in price from April 2020 to November 2021. These included oranges (per kilogram), carrots (per bag), celery (per stalk), mushrooms (per 227g pack), cabbage ( per kilogram), onions (per kilogram), and pears (per kilogram), each of which increased between 3.5% to 8.1% in price. Broccoli (per bunch), cucumber (per fruit), and apples (per kilogram) displayed increases of 10% to 10.8%, while the most significant increase occurred for cantaloupe and peppers. Cantaloupes rose in price from $3.81/melon to $4.60/melon, and peppers increased from $8.66/kg to $10.90/kg, representing a 20.7% increase for cantaloupe and a 25.9% increase for peppers.
The majority of dairy products also increased in price during this period. With the exception of a block of cheese (which displayed a 2.5% decrease), 2L cartons of milk increased by 2.9%, 454g tubs of butter increased by 2.1%, and 500g tubs of yogurt increased by 7.5% between April 2020 and November 2021.
On the other hand,, of the 10 foods that decreased in price, 60% were fruits or vegetables. These included potatoes dropping 11.2% per 4.54kg and avocados dropping 11.8% per fruit. Tomatoes also decreased 4.2% per kilogram and lemons dropped 5.7% per fruit. The most dramatic decrease, however, was seen in canned tuna, which decreased in price 23.6% per 170g between April 2020 and November 2021.
The forecasted food prices for 2021, displayed in Canada’s Food Price Report (2), are somewhat similar to the increases we experienced in Newfoundland and Labrador. However, likely due to the higher shipping costs associated with transporting food to an island, many of the 2021 increases in our province are significantly higher than anticipated by this report. For example, the Food Price Report forecasted meat prices to increase between 4.5% and 6.5%, yet meat prices in Newfoundland and Labrador increased anywhere between 8.0% (per kilogram of ground beef) to 56.3% (per kilogram of beef top sirloin cuts).
What To Expect In 2022
The 2022 edition of Canada’s Food Price Report (3) expects higher than average food inflation rates for Newfoundland and Labrador in 2022, forecasting up to a 7% increase – the highest predicted in over a decade.
Compared to 2019, March 2021 alone saw Canadian food bank use increase 20%, with a total of 1.3 million visits across the country (4). In Newfoundland and Labrador specifically, there were 10,803 food bank visits in 2021. The cumulative effects of increasingly rising food prices and substantial job loss due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic have evidently produced a level of need comparable to the aftereffects of the 2008 recession4. In October 2021, food banks in the Avalon region purportedly saw a drastic increase in first-time users since the inflation rate had risen to 4.1% in August of the same year – the highest in nearly two decades (5). Consequently, coupling the increasingly rising food costs with the relatively stable working wages and fixed incomes, it is expected that food bank use will also continue to intensify as we move further into 2022.
Supply chain disruptions due to the lingering COVID-19 pandemic are one cause of the increased food prices seen by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Of course, such disruptions are expected to dissolve as the pandemic eventually resolves. However, the issue of climate change has also played a role in the inflation of food prices experienced by consumers in our province. Climate change presents numerous challenges to the Canadian food system and supply chains, which directly affect communities and individual livelihoods (6) . Such challenges include adverse weather conditions, such as those recently seen in the Northern Hemisphere, that disrupt crops, supply chains, and threaten livestock – including droughts, forest fires, and heavy precipitation. These are likely to continue to get worse for the foreseeable future. Evidently, the reasons for continually rising food prices are quite complex. But, is there something to be done to mitigate this issue moving forward?
The Way Forward
Food price increases caused by such complexities as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and their associated supply chain disruptions must have no single solution. Addressing them systematically involves tackling issues as diverse as supply chain management, carbon pricing, just wages for food workers, and much more. Income solutions are also a part of this conversation. It’s pretty clear that the interventions we know work to reduce food insecurity are those that get more income in the pockets of folks who need it - whether through higher minimum wages, improved income support rates, or other programs. Without adjustments in these rates, we’ll keep losing ground against increasing food prices.
With Newfoundland and Labrador headed into a new Poverty Reduction Strategy and a Minimum Wage review, now is a good time to reach out to your elected representatives to see what their plans are to address rising food prices and the impacts they are having.
At the individual level there are also ways in which some of us can alter our spending habits to adapt to the rising prices, such as using coupons, shopping for sales, and reviewing store flyers to compare prices between stores. Another option is to purchase food items in bulk – this can be done on your own or through a bulk buying club. A bulk buying club is a group of people with similar food preferences who come together to buy food in bulk. All participants of a bulk buying club are involved in the planning, shopping, sorting, and delivering of food. These clubs enable individuals to work with a group of like-minded people to get more with their food dollars by partnering with grocery retailers who provide the club with better deals on bulk foods.
Over the long term, buying local can also matter. Purchasing locally grown or produced food, such as at a farmer’s market, the local aisle in the grocery store, or through the Western NL Food Hub, helps to stimulate the local economy, and incentivizes our agriculture industry to continue and grow, which can put downward pressure on prices in the long-term.
Understanding the reasons for the food price increases is important for understanding how we can effect positive change towards a more equitable and resilient food system. These system-level changes depend on action from politicians at all levels. One solid start: contact your local MP about one or more of the food policy actions proposed by Food Secure Canada (7).
References
Statistics Canada. Table 18-10-0245-01 Monthly average retail prices for selected products, by province. Retrieved from: https://doi.datacite.org/dois/10.25318%2F1810024501-eng
Agri-Food Analytics Lab. (2021). Canada’s Food Price Report 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/canada-s-food-price-report-2021.html
Agri-Food Analytics Lab. (2022). Canada’s Food Price Report 2022. Retrieved from: https://www.dal.ca/sites/agri-food/research/canada-s-food-price-report-2022.html
Food Banks Canada. (2021). HungerCount 2021 Report. Retrieved from: https://hungercount.foodbankscanada.ca/
Whilhelm, H. (2021). Rising Food Prices Put Pressure on Avalon Food Banks. CBC News. Retrieved from https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/rising-food-prices-food-banks-1-6199013-1.6199013
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2021). Climate Adaptation and Food Security. Retrieved from: https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/about-our-department/key-departmental-initiatives/food-policy/leadership-2021-united-nations-food-systems-summit-and-dialogues/climate-adaptation-and-food-security
Food Secure Canada. (2020). Growing Resiliency and Equity: A Food Policy Action Plan in the Context of COVID-19. Retrieved from https://foodsecurecanada.org/2020-growing-resilience-equity
